=== 1. REPRODUCTION OF REPORTED INDICATORS (ACB pp.16-19, 140-143) ===
NPV@10% = 1541.519 mdp   (reported 1,541.4996 mdp, Table 5-23)
IRR     = 12.2738 %   (reported 12.27 %)
B/C     = 1.2150        (reported 1.22, Table 5-25)  PV benefits 8710.18 / PV costs 7168.66
PV components (mdp): {'inv': 5253.05, 'op': 1471.92, 'mol': 443.69, 'tv': 6670.2, 'cov': 1754.78, 'co2': 102.72, 'res': 182.48}
TRI     = 12.672 %   (reported 12.67 %): net flow 2030 1045.18 / FV(2029) of 2025-29 investment+molestias 8247.6

=== 1b. TABLE 5-22 RECONCILIATION (ACB p.142) ===
Table 5-22 costs: investment 5253.05 + reinversiones 63.49 + O&M 1471.92 + molestias 443.69 = 7232.14 (reported total 7232.14)
  -> 'Costo de inversion' 5253.05 already includes reinvestments (PV of all investment-column flows = 5253.05); total counts them twice by 63.49
  -> correct PV costs from the flows = 7168.66
Table 5-22 TV 8070.94 vs PV of Table 5-21 TV 6670.20: ratio 1.21000; COV ratio 1.21000; 1.10^2 = 1.21
  CO2 ratio 1.20965; residual ratio 1.00000
  'Beneficios por ahorro en CGV' 8424.98 = PV(TV)+PV(COV) = 8424.98 (consistent with the flows, NOT with its own TV and COV lines)
  Table 5-22 'Valor actual de beneficios' 10500.97 = sum of the inflated lines 10500.97
  Table 5-22 benefits - costs = 3268.8 mdp and ratio 1.452; reported NPV 1541.5, B/C 1.22 (Table 5-25), 1.45 (Table 3-22, p.76)
  Table 3-22 (p.76): investment 7114.6 vs Table 1-2 total 6030.1 (difference 1084.5 = 2 x reinvestments 542.25); VAC 7414.6
  Conclusions p.152 print NPV 1,521,499,643 vs 1,541,499,642.58 elsewhere (diff 20.0 mdp)
  Table 5-21 totals: sum investment -6572.37, O&M -6821.21, molestias -535.82; avg O&M 2030-57 243.61 (text: 243.91)
  Initial investment 2025-29 (excl. reinvestments 303.75+238.50) = -6030.12 vs Table 1-2 total 6,030.11
Share of PV benefits: {'tv': '76.6%', 'cov': '20.1%', 'co2': '1.2%', 'res': '2.1%'}
No ramp-up: 2030 TV benefit 944.4 mdp is already 100% of trend (2031: 958.4); demand growth in benefits 1.48%/yr

(d) contract 6752.949 mdp with VAT = 5821.508 mdp w/o VAT vs ACB Subtotal 1 5822.075: factor 0.999903 (-0.0097%)

=== 2b. TV RECONSTRUCTION FROM THE ACB OWN INPUTS (2030, mdp) ===
Sin proyecto (optimizada): reconstructed 5249.7 vs ACB 5023.4  (+4.5%)
Con proyecto:              reconstructed 4890.5 vs ACB 4079.0  (+19.9%)
TV benefit 2030:           reconstructed 359.3 vs ACB 944.4  -> ratio 0.380
Annualisation check: ACB Table 4-16 daily SCP total 16,122,541.51 x 253 = 4,079,003,002 (Table 5-9 annual 4,079,003,002); x240 would be 3,869,409,962; 2031 ratio annual/day = 253.000
Upper bound with ACB stated maxima (24 min STC riders, 3 min remnant) on 20,615 and 299,483 pax: 23,220 h/day -> 516.3 mdp/yr (ratio 0.547)
If ALL of the 944.4 mdp came from STC riders alone: 124 minutes saved per STC rider at 253 d (130 at 240 d); ACB says 16-24

=== 3. SCENARIOS (NPV mdp @10%, IRR, B/C) ===
a       NPV   1,541.5  IRR  12.27%  B/C 1.215  socially profitable      Base reproduced
b1      NPV  -3,261.7  IRR   4.02%  B/C 0.545  NOT socially profitable  Value of time from ACB survey, lowest (24.6 $/h = 0.41 $/min)
b2      NPV  -2,305.5  IRR   6.00%  B/C 0.678  NOT socially profitable  Value of time from ACB survey, highest (37.2 $/h = 0.62 $/min)
b3      NPV  -3,175.7  IRR   4.21%  B/C 0.557  NOT socially profitable  VOT survey, work/leisure-weighted long trips (25.7 $/h)
b4      NPV  -2,406.6  IRR   5.80%  B/C 0.664  NOT socially profitable  VOT survey, work/leisure-weighted short trips (35.9 $/h)
c1      NPV  -3,607.5  IRR   3.20%  B/C 0.497  NOT socially profitable  Demand = PMUPU low 7,500 pax/day (vs ACB 18,930)
c2      NPV   1,573.1  IRR  12.32%  B/C 1.219  socially profitable      Demand = PMUPU high 19,000 pax/day (vs ACB 18,930)
c1b     NPV  -3,883.7  IRR   2.55%  B/C 0.458  NOT socially profitable  Demand 7,500 relative to ACB 2030 demand 20,615
c2b     NPV     873.5  IRR  11.32%  B/C 1.122  socially profitable      Demand 19,000 relative to ACB 2030 demand 20,615
d       NPV   1,542.0  IRR  12.27%  B/C 1.215  socially profitable      Investment at awarded contract amount (6,752.95 mdp with VAT = 5,821.51 without)
d_alt   NPV     741.9  IRR  10.99%  B/C 1.093  socially profitable      IF the contract amount were pre-VAT (6,752.95 mdp w/o VAT)
e1      NPV     883.5  IRR  11.23%  B/C 1.126  socially profitable      Opening delayed 1 year (benefits, O&M, reinvestments, residual shifted; investment unchanged)
e2      NPV     285.3  IRR  10.38%  B/C 1.041  socially profitable      Opening delayed 2 years (same)
e1s     NPV     694.3  IRR  10.97%  B/C 1.097  socially profitable      Strict: benefits shifted 1 yr, costs unchanged, fixed 2057 horizon
e2s     NPV     -75.2  IRR   9.90%  B/C 0.990  NOT socially profitable  Strict: benefits shifted 2 yrs, costs unchanged, fixed 2057 horizon
f       NPV   1,178.2  IRR  11.66%  B/C 1.156  socially profitable      Mayorazgo extension: initial investment +7%, no extra demand
f2      NPV   1,075.2  IRR  11.52%  B/C 1.141  socially profitable      Mayorazgo extension: investment +7% and O&M +7%
g       NPV  -3,070.7  IRR   5.05%  B/C 0.590  NOT socially profitable  PRUDENT: VOT 37.2 $/h (study upper) + 1-yr delay + extension +7% inv/+7% O&M
g_low   NPV  -3,940.0  IRR   3.26%  B/C 0.474  NOT socially profitable  PRUDENT variant with VOT 24.6 $/h
h       NPV  -5,542.9  IRR  -1.81%  B/C 0.198  NOT socially profitable  PESSIMISTIC: VOT 24.6 $/h + PMUPU low demand 7,500 + 2-yr delay
h_mild  NPV  -5,183.1  IRR  -0.75%  B/C 0.263  NOT socially profitable  PESSIMISTIC (mild): VOT 37.2 $/h + demand 7,500 + 1-yr delay
x1      NPV   1,359.0  IRR  12.09%  B/C 1.190  socially profitable      No residual value (63.9% of cost after 32 yrs vs stated 35-yr life)
x4      NPV   1,198.8  IRR  11.79%  B/C 1.167  socially profitable      TV annualised with the 240 days the ACB text states instead of the 253 its tables use (x0.9486)
x2      NPV  -2,591.3  IRR   5.43%  B/C 0.639  NOT socially profitable  TV benefit rebuilt from the ACB own minutes/demand (x0.380)
x3      NPV  -1,481.9  IRR   7.53%  B/C 0.793  NOT socially profitable  TV benefit at ACB stated maxima 24/3 min (x0.547) - generous cap

=== 4. SWITCHING VALUES (NPV = 0) ===
TV benefits (VOT): 23.11%
TV+COV+CO2 together = daily demand: 18.08%
All benefits incl. residual: 17.70%
Investment column (incl. reinvestments, as in Table 5-25): 29.35%
Initial investment 2025-29 only: 29.70%
O&M: 104.73%
Investment + molestias + O&M (all costs): 21.50%
  ACB reports: investment 29.7%, O&M 101%, TV -23.1%, COV -87.5%, CGV -18.2% (Table 5-24)
  VOT at switching point: 67.58 $/h = 1.126 $/min (ACB survey: 0.41-0.62 $/min)
  Demand at switching point: 15,508 pax/day (base 18,930); in 2030 terms 16,889 vs 20,615
  PMUPU low 7,500 is a 60.4% cut vs ACB base; the NPV turns negative after only a 18.1% cut (3.3x further)
NPV with full delay of 0..5 years: [1541.5, 883.5, 285.3, -258.5, -752.9, -1202.4]
  NPV reaches zero after about 2.52 years of delay (linear interpolation)
NPV with strict benefit-only delay of 0..5 years: [1541.5, 694.3, -75.2, -773.9, -1408.4, -1984.5]
  strict: zero after about 1.90 years
Residual value PV 182.5 mdp: without it NPV = 1359.0

=== 5. PLAUSIBILITY CHECKS ===
(i) Farebox vs O&M ("autosuficiencia financiera a partir del 2do ano")
  2030 opening 20,615            fare  8.50 days 240: revenue   42.1 mdp/yr  =  40.1% of compendium O&M 105 |  27.2% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  17.3% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2030 opening 20,615            fare  8.50 days 300: revenue   52.6 mdp/yr  =  50.1% of compendium O&M 105 |  33.9% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  21.6% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2030 opening 20,615            fare  8.50 days 365: revenue   64.0 mdp/yr  =  60.9% of compendium O&M 105 |  41.3% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  26.3% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2030 opening 20,615            fare 12.00 days 240: revenue   59.4 mdp/yr  =  56.5% of compendium O&M 105 |  38.3% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  24.4% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2030 opening 20,615            fare 12.00 days 300: revenue   74.2 mdp/yr  =  70.7% of compendium O&M 105 |  47.9% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  30.5% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2030 opening 20,615            fare 12.00 days 365: revenue   90.3 mdp/yr  =  86.0% of compendium O&M 105 |  58.3% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  37.1% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2031 (2nd year, interpolated)  fare  8.50 days 240: revenue   42.7 mdp/yr  =  40.6% of compendium O&M 105 |  27.6% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  17.5% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2031 (2nd year, interpolated)  fare  8.50 days 300: revenue   53.3 mdp/yr  =  50.8% of compendium O&M 105 |  34.4% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  21.9% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2031 (2nd year, interpolated)  fare  8.50 days 365: revenue   64.9 mdp/yr  =  61.8% of compendium O&M 105 |  41.9% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  26.6% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2031 (2nd year, interpolated)  fare 12.00 days 240: revenue   60.2 mdp/yr  =  57.4% of compendium O&M 105 |  38.9% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  24.7% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2031 (2nd year, interpolated)  fare 12.00 days 300: revenue   75.3 mdp/yr  =  71.7% of compendium O&M 105 |  48.6% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  30.9% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2031 (2nd year, interpolated)  fare 12.00 days 365: revenue   91.6 mdp/yr  =  87.3% of compendium O&M 105 |  59.2% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  37.6% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2055 27,367                    fare  8.50 days 240: revenue   55.8 mdp/yr  =  53.2% of compendium O&M 105 |  36.0% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  22.9% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2055 27,367                    fare  8.50 days 300: revenue   69.8 mdp/yr  =  66.5% of compendium O&M 105 |  45.1% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  28.6% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2055 27,367                    fare  8.50 days 365: revenue   84.9 mdp/yr  =  80.9% of compendium O&M 105 |  54.8% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  34.9% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2055 27,367                    fare 12.00 days 240: revenue   78.8 mdp/yr  =  75.1% of compendium O&M 105 |  50.9% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  32.4% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2055 27,367                    fare 12.00 days 300: revenue   98.5 mdp/yr  =  93.8% of compendium O&M 105 |  63.6% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  40.4% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  2055 27,367                    fare 12.00 days 365: revenue  119.9 mdp/yr  = 114.2% of compendium O&M 105 |  77.4% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  49.2% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  base 18,930                    fare  8.50 days 240: revenue   38.6 mdp/yr  =  36.8% of compendium O&M 105 |  24.9% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  15.9% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  base 18,930                    fare  8.50 days 300: revenue   48.3 mdp/yr  =  46.0% of compendium O&M 105 |  31.2% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  19.8% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  base 18,930                    fare  8.50 days 365: revenue   58.7 mdp/yr  =  55.9% of compendium O&M 105 |  37.9% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  24.1% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  base 18,930                    fare 12.00 days 240: revenue   54.5 mdp/yr  =  51.9% of compendium O&M 105 |  35.2% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  22.4% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  base 18,930                    fare 12.00 days 300: revenue   68.1 mdp/yr  =  64.9% of compendium O&M 105 |  44.0% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  28.0% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  base 18,930                    fare 12.00 days 365: revenue   82.9 mdp/yr  =  79.0% of compendium O&M 105 |  53.5% of ACB 2030 O&M 154.9 |  34.0% of ACB avg O&M 243.6
  Best case (2031 pax, $12, 365 d, nobody exempt) = 91.6 mdp < 105 mdp compendium O&M
  Break-even fare for compendium 105 mdp at 2031 demand: 240 d $20.9; 365 d $13.8.  Break-even pax at $12: 240 d 36,458; 365 d 23,973 pax/day
  Break-even fare for ACB avg 243.6 mdp at 2031 demand: 240 d $48.5; 365 d $31.9.  Break-even pax at $12: 240 d 84,588; 365 d 55,620 pax/day
  Life-cycle cost (investment+reinvest+O&M, no molestias) 13,393.6 mdp nominal / 163.9 M weekday trips (2030-57, 240 d) = $81.7 per trip; PV 6725.0 mdp / PV trips 34.9 M = $192.5 per trip vs fare $8.50-$12
  O&M only per trip (2030): $31.3; average $41.6
(ii) CO2 claim 18,507 t/yr
  per daily passenger (18,930): 0.978 t/yr; per trip at 240 d: 4.07 kg; at 365 d: 2.68 kg
  Emission factors per car-km: EPA 0.2485 kg; ACB gasoline factor (2.233 kg/l) x 10 l/100km = 0.2233 kg
  UPPER BOUND pax 18,930 x 8.1 km x 0.249 kg x 240 d = 9,147 t/yr  (claim/bound = 2.02)
  UPPER BOUND pax 18,930 x 8.1 km x 0.249 kg x 365 d = 13,910 t/yr  (claim/bound = 1.33)
  UPPER BOUND pax 18,930 x 10.4 km x 0.249 kg x 240 d = 11,744 t/yr  (claim/bound = 1.58)
  UPPER BOUND pax 18,930 x 10.4 km x 0.249 kg x 365 d = 17,860 t/yr  (claim/bound = 1.04)
  UPPER BOUND pax 20,615 (2030) x 8.1 km x 0.249 kg x 240 d = 9,961 t/yr  (claim/bound = 1.86)
  UPPER BOUND pax 20,615 (2030) x 8.1 km x 0.249 kg x 365 d = 15,149 t/yr  (claim/bound = 1.22)
  UPPER BOUND pax 20,615 (2030) x 10.4 km x 0.249 kg x 240 d = 12,789 t/yr  (claim/bound = 1.45)
  UPPER BOUND pax 20,615 (2030) x 10.4 km x 0.249 kg x 365 d = 19,450 t/yr  (claim/bound = 0.95)
  ACB Table 5-19 diff 61,087 read as kg/day: 61.087 t/day x 240 d = 14,661 t/yr; x365 = 22,297; implied price $1,102/t; claim/ACB = 1.26; days needed to reach claim = 303
  Read literally (t/day) it would be 14.7 Mt/yr -> impossible as labelled
  ACB CO2 PV share of benefits 1.18%
(iii) Time claim "100 a 44 min"
  site saving 56 min = 56% of 100; ACB STC-rider savings 16.28-24.17 min: site claim is 2.32x the ACB maximum and 3.44x the minimum
  ACB current average door-to-door 59.1 min (Table 2-8): the 100 min 'before' is 1.69x that average; ACB STC-rider time after 26.9-35.8 min (Table 4-15) vs site 44 min
  Ride only: 14.58 km / 21.6 km/h = 40.5 min; site says 43.76 min Mayorazgo-Amalucan
(iv) Compendium 300% CO2
  (242-48.2)/242 = 80.08% reduction; 242/48.2 = 5.02x (a 300% reduction is arithmetically impossible: max is 100%)
(v) Cost per rider and per km
  6752.9 mdp / 18,930 daily pax = $356,733 per daily passenger
  6752.9 mdp / 20,615 daily pax = $327,575 per daily passenger
  6752.9 mdp / 14.58 km (14.58 site) = 463.2 mdp per km
  6752.9 mdp / 14.5 km (14.50 Acuerdo) = 465.7 mdp per km
  6752.9 mdp / 13.6 km (13.6 ACB) = 496.5 mdp per km
  ACB total investment with VAT 6,965.6 mdp / 13.6 km = 512.2 mdp/km; per daily pax (18,930) $367,968
  Contract vs ACB Subtotal 1 with VAT: -658,281.42 pesos (-0.0097%)
  Physical progress 2.71% at 15 Sep 2026 = ~9.5 months after contract start (2 Dec 2025); ACB schedule: construction from Sep 2025, cumulative investment by end-2026 = 49.9% of 2025-29 investment
